中国房地产行业盈余管理模型的构建及实证分析

本文研究中国上市房地产企业的盈余管理行为。本文发现，传统应计制下的盈余管理模型无法较好地拟合中国房地产行业盈余管理的特征。在关注房地产行业经营和财务处理方面特殊之处的基础上，通过详细分析预售制度和会计处理的特点，建立了以预收账款作为被解释变量的预收模型。运用该模型对房地产行业的盈余管理行为进行了检验．其检验效果和拟合优度要优于改进的修正琼斯模型。经过实证检验，认为上市房地产企业利用预收账款，存在微弱的正向盈余操纵。     

消费者对生态标识食品的多层面认知行为:基于MVP模型的实证分析

笔者基于山东省693个样本数据,以绿色食品为例,将消费者认知行为划分为知晓、识别与使用三个层面,构建多变量Probit模型,分析在消费者认知程度提高过程中起主要作用的因素。研究发现,男性或年轻受访者在知晓层面的认知率较高,而女性、年长受访者在识别和使用层面的认知率相对较高;收入和卷入程度的影响在知晓层面不显著,而在识别和使用层面显著;学历、子女状况与环境保护意识的影响在各层面皆显著;食品安全意识与信息渠道的影响在较低层面显著,而在较高层面不显著。消费者认知行为的异质性为市场细分与开发提供了空间。厂商应针对不同群体采取差异化营销战略,引导消费者认知行为,促进潜在需求向现实需求转化。     

Europe,Germany and “The German Model”: Economic Links and Implications for China

Abstract

In this paper, I examine the economic links first between the European Union (EU) and China and then I focus on the economic relationships between Germany and China. The links I will consider include international trade and direct investment. Lastly I highlight some elements of the so-called “German Model” or the “Berlin Way” and examine if they can be of policy relevance to China. There are four main results: first, EU-China trade and investment relationships are strong, deepening rapidly but they are somewhat unbalanced and asymmetric. Second, the economic relationships between Europe and China are focused on manufacturing. Third, the EU-China relationships are primarily Deutschland-centric. Lastly, elements of the “German Model” such as Mitbestimmung, Mittelstand and the German apprenticeship system can have important structural and policy implications as China continues to grow and experiment with reforms aiming at combining stability, harmony and competitiveness.     

关于完善企业内部控制的思考

内部控制制度是现代企业管理的重要手段。但目前许多企业在内部控制制度的建设和执行方面都存在很多问题 ,需要强化企业内部控制受益主体的控制意识、建立合理的授权批准体系、科学设置内部控制制度、建立反馈机制和风险评估机制以完善企业内部控制。     

旅游企业内部顾客价值初探

在各类企业日益注重"顾客价值"管理实践的今天,部分走在前列的企业已将目光转移到"内部顾客价值"的管理上。本文结合旅游企业的管理实践探讨了"内部顾客价值"的定义,其对旅游企业的重要作用及提高旅游企业内部顾客价值的途径等问题。     

Service-Oriented Computing for intelligent train maintenance

The purpose of this work is to apply the servicization of enterprise information systems in maintenance, particularly in the management of the maintenance process of the component parts of trains. Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) is an architectural approach that permits servicization since it provides a flexible set of design principles used during the modeling practices (abstraction and realization). With a view to supporting the model-driven engineering of software systems, Mode Driven Architecture (MDA) is a design approach delivering a set of guidelines for the configuring of specifications in systems development. Therefore, the combination of these two approaches can be fruitful to address the challenging issues the enterprise information system is facing today. Our study is based on a methodological approach using the MDA models for the automatic generation of web service. The case study concerns a Railways Maintenance Workshop (RMW) at Sidi Bel Abbes (Algeria). Finally, the information system for the management of maintenance of the component parts of passengers and baggage railcars, using the generated solution, is realized and deployed. This software helps to have better management of the RMW by the effective planning of interventions, improve performance by increasing reliability, traceability, and availability of the equipment (parts).     

Pairs trading strategies in a cointegration framework: back-tested on CFD and optimized by profit factor

Statistical arbitrage is based on pairs trading of mean-reverting returns. We used cointegration approach and ECM-DCC-GARCH to construct 98 pairs of 152 stocks of 3 currencies. Stocks trading is done by Contract for Difference (CFD), a financial derivative product which facilitates short selling and provides a leverage up to 25 times. To measure the performance of a leveraged strategy, we introduced the profit factor which is the annualized return rate per unit risk. And the historical risk is measured by maximum drawdown. We compared three main strategies: percentage, standard deviation of cointegration long-term residuals and Bollinger Bands (dynamic standard deviation), with and without double confirmation of short-term standard deviation modelled by ECM-DCC-GARCH. Each of the three main strategies is optimized by two optimizers: absolute profit and profit factor. The optimization period goes from 2012–01-01 to 2014–12-31, and validation period is from 2015–01-01 to 2016–06-01. Our results showed that the USD Bollinger Bands strategy without double confirmation and optimized by profit factor, outperformed other strategies and provided the highest annualized return rate per unit risk; 32% of our sample pairs ended up in loss, and 94% of which are explained by a cointegration break during the testing period.     

Far from the madding crowd: collective wisdom in prediction markets

We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a repeated prediction market model. We derive the conditions for long-run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content of prevailing prices in the case of fractional Kelly traders with heterogeneous beliefs. It turns out that, apart some non-generic situations, prices do not converge, neither almost surely nor on average, to true probabilities, nor are they always nearer to the truth than the beliefs of all surviving agents. This implies that, in general, prediction market prices are not maximum likelihood estimators of the true probabilities. However, when more than one agent survives, the average price emerging from a prediction market approximates the true probability with lower information loss than any individual belief.     

Convex risk measures for the aggregation of multiple information sources and applications in insurance

We propose a novel class of convex risk measures, based on the concept of the Fréchet mean, designed in order to handle uncertainty which arises from multiple information sources regarding the risk factors of interest. The proposed risk measures robustly characterize the exposure of the firm, by filtering out appropriately the partial information available in individual sources into an aggregate model for the risk factors of interest. Importantly, the proposed risks can be expressed in closed analytic forms allowing for interesting qualitative interpretations as well as comparative statics and thus facilitate their use in the everyday risk management process of the insurance firms. The potential use of the proposed risk measures in insurance is illustrated by two concrete applications, capital risk allocation and premia calculation under uncertainty.